I thought I might speculate about long term strategic threats to the United States and follow up with some predictions about what may happen. The US is so fixated on terrorism that it has forgotten that the real long term foe is China. The Pentagon just released a report saying so and many people in the IR community have been saying so for since the mid nineties.
Our relationship with China can be divided up as follows:
- 1990 – 2000 – what I call ‘Absolute and Overwhelming Advantage’ of the USA over China. In any scenario the USA could have obliterated China in any conceivable war. The US could steamroll so fast that any war would be over in days or weeks. Total devastation for China. (I assume they will not worry about ‘collateral damage’.)
- 2000 – 2010 – ‘General Absolute Advantage’ of the USA over China. Sure there would be casualties in a war between the two nations but it would be manageable. Maybe a few thousand dead on the US side. Maybe not even that. Total devastation for China. Such a war would last no more than 90 days.
- 2010 – 2020 – ‘Relative Advantage’ of the US over China. The US could win in any war with China but it would be very messy and could end up lasting a long time. It might last years. China by then would have aircraft carriers which would enable it to project power well past its territory. Minimum of 50,000 dead to 100,000 to 300,000 on the US side. The US economy would suffer very greatly. The cost of winning such a war may guarantee military, economic and political weakness for decades afterwards. The Chinese could put up a good fight but would find their country devastated to the point where it would take over 100 years to recover. The US would lob every possible modern missile. The lives of civilians would not come in to calculations. All major Chinese cities would be laid waste. This would have to occur for the US to prevail.
- 2020 – 2040 – ‘Stalemate’ - neither side could prevail. The Chinese economy by 2020 will be bigger than the USA in PPP. (I justify this below.) China will have a larger overall economy and greater manpower. The US will have greater technological capability. It will have a greater GDP per Capita (PPP) enabling it to more efficiently gain revenues. (I assume that one can get away with higher marginal taxes in richer economies.) Neither side could prevail alone. Only with allies could either side prevail. The consequences would be awful for the US, China and the world. China could take back Taiwan but the US could attack mainland China in retaliation. (In the even that China took Taiwan, the US may understand the futility of counterattacking and may instead choose to do nothing.)
- 2040 – 2050 – ‘Relative Advantage’ of China over the US. Due to revaluation of its currency GDP per Capita in China would roughly equal that of the US. It would hold the technological advantage. It could at great cost peruse a war with the US and win. It could afford to lose more men making the absolute pain of losing many men less relatively painful. China could mount serious attacks on the US mainland.
- 2050 – 2060??? - ‘General Absolute Advantage’ of China over the US. The USA would have to kowtow to China. Without allies all war with China will be useless. China will be the ‘first among equals’ of great powers in much the same way that Britain was in the nineteenth century. The next great power after China will be India.
Note about calculation of GDP.
According to the Pocket World in Figures by the Economist I get the following figures.
GDP PPP, $bn – USA – 10,308
GDP PPP, $bn – USA – 5,861
Currently China is growing by about 10% per annum. Even if it grows by 8% it will overtake the USA by 2020. I think it’s reasonable to assume that the average difference in rate of growth will be 5%.
Thus 5,861 * 1.0515 = 12,184.6
Even if one is much more cautious and assume an average difference in rate of growth will be 4% the Chinese economy will overtake the USA by 2020.
Thus 5,861 * 1.0415 = 10,555.3
Note that currently the difference in growth rate is currently about 6.5%.
